Exploring the impacts of climate change on fisheries resources within the NAFO Convention Area

Daniel G. Boyce*¹, Frédéric Cyr², Susanna Fuller³, Kathryn E. Schleit³, Rick M. Rideout⁴

¹ Wild Ocean Research, Cow Bay, Nova Scotia, Canada
² Centre for Fisheries and Ecosystem Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute of
Memorial University, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
³ Oceans North, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
⁴ Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. John’s,
Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

*Corresponding author: dboyce@dal.ca

Boyce, D.G., Cyr, F., Fuller, S., Schleit, K.E., Rideout, R.M. 2026. Exploring the impacts of climate change on fisheries resources within the NAFO Convention Area. J. Northw. Atl. Fish. Sci., 57(1): 1–33. https://doi.org/10.2960/J.v57.m751

 

Abstract

Climate change is impacting marine species, populations, ecosystems, and the fisheries and communities they support. While there is broad agreement that climate change should be considered when assessing the status of exploited stocks and making harvest decisions, there is little consensus on how to do so. This study aims to increase knowledge and awareness of climate change and its impacts on fisheries and ecosystems across the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Convention Area, following NAFO’s 2023 resolution to address the effects of climate change on NAFO fisheries and to provide guidance on adaptation and mitigation in support of climate-resilient fisheries. A comprehensive literature review was undertaken, supplemented by analyses of projected climate change and its ecological impacts across the NAFO Convention Area. Various climate changes are observed and projected, including surface and bottom warming, deoxygenation, acidification, reduced sea ice, and altered mixing and nutrient flux. These climate changes are associated with a range of ecological shifts, including altered productivity and mortality rates, geographic range shifts toward more northerly and/or deeper waters, earlier ages at maturity but reduced body sizes, shifted phenology, and trophic mismatches, with disproportionate impacts on high-trophic species. Half of the species examined in the NAFO Convention Area are at high risk of being adversely affected by anthropogenic climate change over the next 75 years. In many areas, climate impacts on fisheries living resources are already occurring or are projected within the next few decades. However, a notable lack of information on climate change impacts was observed for some species, leading to uncertainty in climate risk assessments. Interpreting these findings within the NAFO fisheries management context and in light of its ecosystem approach to fisheries roadmap, several approaches to addressing the impacts of climate change on NAFO fisheries are discussed.

 

Keywords: Northwest Atlantic Ocean, climate change, climate vulnerability, climate risk, fisheries, fisheries management, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization, climate impacts

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Citation: Boyce, D.G., Cyr, F., Fuller, S., Schleit, K.E., Rideout, R.M. 2026. Exploring the impacts of climate change on fisheries resources within the NAFO Convention Area. J. Northw. Atl. Fish. Sci., 57(1): 1–33. https://doi.org/10.2960/J.v57.m751